Apply Uncertainty Analysis Procedure to Vision Model

The research team as Northwestern University, led by Professor Nie, will integrate uncertainty analysis into Argonne’s Vision model. Key parameters such as projected market share of alternative fuel vehicles, VMT/veh, and scrappage rate in Argonne's VISION model are subject to variations and uncertainties. We will first identify possible key parameters which are subject to uncertainties and then develop a stochastic modules light duty vehicle (LDVs) and high duty vehicles (HDV) to systematically examine uncertainty ranges for those key parameters. The parameters for LDV and HDV could be different. Programming codes that Northwestern originally developed for Argonne's JOBS models will be adapted to produce VISION simulation outputs. Data for developing stochastic model inputs will be drawn from ongoing analyses of vehicle usage, survival functions, price, etc., as well as industry sources.