Development of Age-Specific Childhood Risk Prediction Equations to Identify Children at High Risk for Poor Cardiovascular Health in Adulthood

Project: Research project

Project Details


Our team has been highly productive as part of the Prevention Network and we have formed strong collaborative bonds across intuitions and networks. In this renewal application, we propose to build upon our work done as part of the Prevention network and our collaborations with the Children’s SFRN specifically including the members of the Duke Center. We will use data from two consortia: one adult (The Lifetime Risk Pooling Project – including 21 studies, n=~150,000) and the childhood one developed as part of the Prevention project (the 5 childhood/early adult cohorts included in our Prevention SFRN) n=~40,000) to create a synthetic cohort which can provide insight on trajectories of CVH across the full lifespan and enable the creation of age-specific risk prediction models that can identify children at the greatest risk for poor CVH and CVD events in adulthood. We will extend into childhood our use of a validated three-level multiple imputation model whereby we can create a lifetime synthetic cohort by imputing a set of likely risk factor levels for each individual over the lifespan given the data that have already been collected. Using this novel methodology we will be able to determine life course trajectories in CVH and enable the development of age-specific risk prediction models currently impossible given limitations in sample size and length of follow-up. This application builds upon our prior productivity, collaborations and findings within the Prevention SFRN.
Effective start/end date7/1/186/30/21


  • American Heart Association (18SRG34360001)


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