Horton Subproject for PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Defining precursors of ground failure: a multiscale framework for early landslide prediction through geomechanics and remote sensing

This project is inspired by the hypothesis that the origin of landslides is encoded in the spatiotemporal patterns of pre-failure deformation. This vision is pursued with four highly connected research thrusts which will formulate: (1) constitutive laws for geomaterials to explain fluctuations in the rate of ground deformation and replicate the effect of time-varying environmental variables; (2) a multiscale weather-hydrology simulation platform to quantify spatially heterogeneous rainfall inputs and soil moisture at the scale of mountain ranges; (3) landscape scale geomechanical models to reproduce the evolution of remotely sensed deformations via force-transfer laws between proximal portions of terrain; (4) a network theory for surface processes based on the physics of complex systems, by which patterns can be identified and precursors of runaway instability can be defined. If successful, these advances can transform landslide hazard sciences by inspiring innovative early warning systems to protect human life and urban systems.