Mathematical Modeling to inform Urban Malaria microstratification

We will develop a model of urban malaria transmission using ward-level epidemiologic and entomologic data from field studies in three Nigerian cities, engaging and involving stakeholders at every stage of study planning to ensure that model outputs are relevant to strategic planning needs. We will conduct prevalence and longitudinal cohort surveys to obtain epidemiologic data, larval habitat sampling, human baited CDC light trap and Pyrethrum Spray Catches for the entomological data. We do not conduct facility surveys due to the widespread reliance on the private sector for care-seeking and high-prevalence of malaria self-treatment in urban Nigeria. The study design and implementation will evolve in response to the insights that emerge from the ongoing WHO technical consultation on the burden of malaria in urban areas. Studying malaria transmission and generating appropriate intervention mixes for the selected localities will enable understanding of variation in transmission drivers and intervention needs for different urban contexts.