Risk, Cognition and Decision-Making in Era of Heightened Nuclear Threat

Hypothesis This proposal has been shaped by conversations with experts from the nuclear threats space, funders supporting the work of a variety of non-proliferation organizations and an emerging group of behavior and neuroscientists who have expressed a commitment to lend their expertise to this project. Based on these conversations, we believe there is inherent vulnerability across the nuclear threats space when it comes to safeguarding humanity. While the area of greatest concern rests with the intentional or accidental launch of a nuclear weapon, we also want to acknowledge that there are challenges across the field that are shaped and influenced by human assessment and assignment of risk, the ability to make decisions under pressure and the cognitive skill sets of individual “deciders” and the chain of command. We believe that an expansion of the nuclear threats field to include the direct expertise of behavioral and neuroscientists will positively impact the field at large by reshaping deterrence theory, training decision-makers and influencing future nuclear policy. What Success Might Look Like • The identification, engagement and creation of a diverse network of behavioral/neuroscience academics and practitioners committed to working with (within) the nuclear threats space through lines of inquiry, publication that advise future policy and preparedness. • The creation of a body of applied research that shapes future definitions and frameworks of nuclear deterrence practice. • The use of applied research to guide training and preparedness strategies that shape the next generation of deterrence practitioners. Goals This project is built on short- and long-term goals. In the short-term we will distill what is known now, both within the nuclear threats space, as well as what can be ascertain about risk and decision-making from the behavioral sciences, in terms work specific to nuclear threats. We are also reviewing larger bodies of rese