A Clinical Prediction Rule to Identify Febrile Infants 60 Days and Younger at Low Risk for Serious Bacterial Infections

Nathan Kuppermann, Peter S. Dayan, Deborah A. Levine, Melissa Vitale, Leah Tzimenatos, Michael G. Tunik, Mary Saunders, Richard M. Ruddy, Genie Roosevelt, Alexander J. Rogers, Elizabeth C Powell, Lise E. Nigrovic, Jared Muenzer, James G. Linakis, Kathleen Grisanti, David M. Jaffe, John D. Hoyle, Richard Greenberg, Rajender Gattu, Andrea T. Cruz & 16 others Ellen F. Crain, Daniel M. Cohen, Anne Brayer, Dominic Borgialli, Bema Bonsu, Lorin Browne, Stephen Blumberg, Jonathan E. Bennett, Shireen M. Atabaki, Jennifer Anders, Elizabeth R Alpern, Benjamin Miller, T. Charles Casper, J. Michael Dean, Octavio Ramilo, Prashant Mahajan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Importance: In young febrile infants, serious bacterial infections (SBIs), including urinary tract infections, bacteremia, and meningitis, may lead to dangerous complications. However, lumbar punctures and hospitalizations involve risks and costs. Clinical prediction rules using biomarkers beyond the white blood cell count (WBC) may accurately identify febrile infants at low risk for SBIs. Objective: To derive and validate a prediction rule to identify febrile infants 60 days and younger at low risk for SBIs. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective, observational study between March 2011 and May 2013 at 26 emergency departments. Convenience sample of previously healthy febrile infants 60 days and younger who were evaluated for SBIs. Data were analyzed between April 2014 and April 2018. Exposures: Clinical and laboratory data (blood and urine) including patient demographics, fever height and duration, clinical appearance, WBC, absolute neutrophil count (ANC), serum procalcitonin, and urinalysis. We derived and validated a prediction rule based on these variables using binary recursive partitioning analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Serious bacterial infection, defined as urinary tract infection, bacteremia, or bacterial meningitis. Results: We derived the prediction rule on a random sample of 908 infants and validated it on 913 infants (mean age was 36 days, 765 were girls [42%], 781 were white and non-Hispanic [43%], 366 were black [20%], and 535 were Hispanic [29%]). Serious bacterial infections were present in 170 of 1821 infants (9.3%), including 26 (1.4%) with bacteremia, 151 (8.3%) with urinary tract infections, and 10 (0.5%) with bacterial meningitis; 16 (0.9%) had concurrent SBIs. The prediction rule identified infants at low risk of SBI using a negative urinalysis result, an ANC of 4090/;L or less (to convert to ×10 9 per liter, multiply by 0.001), and serum procalcitonin of 1.71 ng/mL or less. In the validation cohort, the rule sensitivity was 97.7% (95% CI, 91.3-99.6), specificity was 60.0% (95% CI, 56.6-63.3), negative predictive value was 99.6% (95% CI, 98.4-99.9), and negative likelihood ratio was 0.04 (95% CI, 0.01-0.15). One infant with bacteremia and 2 infants with urinary tract infections were misclassified. No patients with bacterial meningitis were missed by the rule. The rule performance was nearly identical when the outcome was restricted to bacteremia and/or bacterial meningitis, missing the same infant with bacteremia. Conclusions and Relevance: We derived and validated an accurate prediction rule to identify febrile infants 60 days and younger at low risk for SBIs using the urinalysis, ANC, and procalcitonin levels. Once further validated on an independent cohort, clinical application of the rule has the potential to decrease unnecessary lumbar punctures, antibiotic administration, and hospitalizations..

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)342-351
Number of pages10
JournalJAMA Pediatrics
Volume173
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 1 2019

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Decision Support Techniques
Bacterial Infections
Fever
Bacteremia
Bacterial Meningitides
Urinary Tract Infections
Urinalysis
Calcitonin
Neutrophils
Spinal Puncture
Leukocyte Count
Hospitalization
Serum
Meningitis
Hispanic Americans
Observational Studies
Hospital Emergency Service
Biomarkers
Demography
Outcome Assessment (Health Care)

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pediatrics, Perinatology, and Child Health

Cite this

Kuppermann, N., Dayan, P. S., Levine, D. A., Vitale, M., Tzimenatos, L., Tunik, M. G., ... Mahajan, P. (2019). A Clinical Prediction Rule to Identify Febrile Infants 60 Days and Younger at Low Risk for Serious Bacterial Infections. JAMA Pediatrics, 173(4), 342-351. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2018.5501
Kuppermann, Nathan ; Dayan, Peter S. ; Levine, Deborah A. ; Vitale, Melissa ; Tzimenatos, Leah ; Tunik, Michael G. ; Saunders, Mary ; Ruddy, Richard M. ; Roosevelt, Genie ; Rogers, Alexander J. ; Powell, Elizabeth C ; Nigrovic, Lise E. ; Muenzer, Jared ; Linakis, James G. ; Grisanti, Kathleen ; Jaffe, David M. ; Hoyle, John D. ; Greenberg, Richard ; Gattu, Rajender ; Cruz, Andrea T. ; Crain, Ellen F. ; Cohen, Daniel M. ; Brayer, Anne ; Borgialli, Dominic ; Bonsu, Bema ; Browne, Lorin ; Blumberg, Stephen ; Bennett, Jonathan E. ; Atabaki, Shireen M. ; Anders, Jennifer ; Alpern, Elizabeth R ; Miller, Benjamin ; Casper, T. Charles ; Dean, J. Michael ; Ramilo, Octavio ; Mahajan, Prashant. / A Clinical Prediction Rule to Identify Febrile Infants 60 Days and Younger at Low Risk for Serious Bacterial Infections. In: JAMA Pediatrics. 2019 ; Vol. 173, No. 4. pp. 342-351.
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abstract = "Importance: In young febrile infants, serious bacterial infections (SBIs), including urinary tract infections, bacteremia, and meningitis, may lead to dangerous complications. However, lumbar punctures and hospitalizations involve risks and costs. Clinical prediction rules using biomarkers beyond the white blood cell count (WBC) may accurately identify febrile infants at low risk for SBIs. Objective: To derive and validate a prediction rule to identify febrile infants 60 days and younger at low risk for SBIs. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective, observational study between March 2011 and May 2013 at 26 emergency departments. Convenience sample of previously healthy febrile infants 60 days and younger who were evaluated for SBIs. Data were analyzed between April 2014 and April 2018. Exposures: Clinical and laboratory data (blood and urine) including patient demographics, fever height and duration, clinical appearance, WBC, absolute neutrophil count (ANC), serum procalcitonin, and urinalysis. We derived and validated a prediction rule based on these variables using binary recursive partitioning analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Serious bacterial infection, defined as urinary tract infection, bacteremia, or bacterial meningitis. Results: We derived the prediction rule on a random sample of 908 infants and validated it on 913 infants (mean age was 36 days, 765 were girls [42{\%}], 781 were white and non-Hispanic [43{\%}], 366 were black [20{\%}], and 535 were Hispanic [29{\%}]). Serious bacterial infections were present in 170 of 1821 infants (9.3{\%}), including 26 (1.4{\%}) with bacteremia, 151 (8.3{\%}) with urinary tract infections, and 10 (0.5{\%}) with bacterial meningitis; 16 (0.9{\%}) had concurrent SBIs. The prediction rule identified infants at low risk of SBI using a negative urinalysis result, an ANC of 4090/;L or less (to convert to ×10 9 per liter, multiply by 0.001), and serum procalcitonin of 1.71 ng/mL or less. In the validation cohort, the rule sensitivity was 97.7{\%} (95{\%} CI, 91.3-99.6), specificity was 60.0{\%} (95{\%} CI, 56.6-63.3), negative predictive value was 99.6{\%} (95{\%} CI, 98.4-99.9), and negative likelihood ratio was 0.04 (95{\%} CI, 0.01-0.15). One infant with bacteremia and 2 infants with urinary tract infections were misclassified. No patients with bacterial meningitis were missed by the rule. The rule performance was nearly identical when the outcome was restricted to bacteremia and/or bacterial meningitis, missing the same infant with bacteremia. Conclusions and Relevance: We derived and validated an accurate prediction rule to identify febrile infants 60 days and younger at low risk for SBIs using the urinalysis, ANC, and procalcitonin levels. Once further validated on an independent cohort, clinical application of the rule has the potential to decrease unnecessary lumbar punctures, antibiotic administration, and hospitalizations..",
author = "Nathan Kuppermann and Dayan, {Peter S.} and Levine, {Deborah A.} and Melissa Vitale and Leah Tzimenatos and Tunik, {Michael G.} and Mary Saunders and Ruddy, {Richard M.} and Genie Roosevelt and Rogers, {Alexander J.} and Powell, {Elizabeth C} and Nigrovic, {Lise E.} and Jared Muenzer and Linakis, {James G.} and Kathleen Grisanti and Jaffe, {David M.} and Hoyle, {John D.} and Richard Greenberg and Rajender Gattu and Cruz, {Andrea T.} and Crain, {Ellen F.} and Cohen, {Daniel M.} and Anne Brayer and Dominic Borgialli and Bema Bonsu and Lorin Browne and Stephen Blumberg and Bennett, {Jonathan E.} and Atabaki, {Shireen M.} and Jennifer Anders and Alpern, {Elizabeth R} and Benjamin Miller and Casper, {T. Charles} and Dean, {J. Michael} and Octavio Ramilo and Prashant Mahajan",
year = "2019",
month = "4",
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doi = "10.1001/jamapediatrics.2018.5501",
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pages = "342--351",
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Kuppermann, N, Dayan, PS, Levine, DA, Vitale, M, Tzimenatos, L, Tunik, MG, Saunders, M, Ruddy, RM, Roosevelt, G, Rogers, AJ, Powell, EC, Nigrovic, LE, Muenzer, J, Linakis, JG, Grisanti, K, Jaffe, DM, Hoyle, JD, Greenberg, R, Gattu, R, Cruz, AT, Crain, EF, Cohen, DM, Brayer, A, Borgialli, D, Bonsu, B, Browne, L, Blumberg, S, Bennett, JE, Atabaki, SM, Anders, J, Alpern, ER, Miller, B, Casper, TC, Dean, JM, Ramilo, O & Mahajan, P 2019, 'A Clinical Prediction Rule to Identify Febrile Infants 60 Days and Younger at Low Risk for Serious Bacterial Infections' JAMA Pediatrics, vol. 173, no. 4, pp. 342-351. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2018.5501

A Clinical Prediction Rule to Identify Febrile Infants 60 Days and Younger at Low Risk for Serious Bacterial Infections. / Kuppermann, Nathan; Dayan, Peter S.; Levine, Deborah A.; Vitale, Melissa; Tzimenatos, Leah; Tunik, Michael G.; Saunders, Mary; Ruddy, Richard M.; Roosevelt, Genie; Rogers, Alexander J.; Powell, Elizabeth C; Nigrovic, Lise E.; Muenzer, Jared; Linakis, James G.; Grisanti, Kathleen; Jaffe, David M.; Hoyle, John D.; Greenberg, Richard; Gattu, Rajender; Cruz, Andrea T.; Crain, Ellen F.; Cohen, Daniel M.; Brayer, Anne; Borgialli, Dominic; Bonsu, Bema; Browne, Lorin; Blumberg, Stephen; Bennett, Jonathan E.; Atabaki, Shireen M.; Anders, Jennifer; Alpern, Elizabeth R; Miller, Benjamin; Casper, T. Charles; Dean, J. Michael; Ramilo, Octavio; Mahajan, Prashant.

In: JAMA Pediatrics, Vol. 173, No. 4, 01.04.2019, p. 342-351.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - A Clinical Prediction Rule to Identify Febrile Infants 60 Days and Younger at Low Risk for Serious Bacterial Infections

AU - Kuppermann, Nathan

AU - Dayan, Peter S.

AU - Levine, Deborah A.

AU - Vitale, Melissa

AU - Tzimenatos, Leah

AU - Tunik, Michael G.

AU - Saunders, Mary

AU - Ruddy, Richard M.

AU - Roosevelt, Genie

AU - Rogers, Alexander J.

AU - Powell, Elizabeth C

AU - Nigrovic, Lise E.

AU - Muenzer, Jared

AU - Linakis, James G.

AU - Grisanti, Kathleen

AU - Jaffe, David M.

AU - Hoyle, John D.

AU - Greenberg, Richard

AU - Gattu, Rajender

AU - Cruz, Andrea T.

AU - Crain, Ellen F.

AU - Cohen, Daniel M.

AU - Brayer, Anne

AU - Borgialli, Dominic

AU - Bonsu, Bema

AU - Browne, Lorin

AU - Blumberg, Stephen

AU - Bennett, Jonathan E.

AU - Atabaki, Shireen M.

AU - Anders, Jennifer

AU - Alpern, Elizabeth R

AU - Miller, Benjamin

AU - Casper, T. Charles

AU - Dean, J. Michael

AU - Ramilo, Octavio

AU - Mahajan, Prashant

PY - 2019/4/1

Y1 - 2019/4/1

N2 - Importance: In young febrile infants, serious bacterial infections (SBIs), including urinary tract infections, bacteremia, and meningitis, may lead to dangerous complications. However, lumbar punctures and hospitalizations involve risks and costs. Clinical prediction rules using biomarkers beyond the white blood cell count (WBC) may accurately identify febrile infants at low risk for SBIs. Objective: To derive and validate a prediction rule to identify febrile infants 60 days and younger at low risk for SBIs. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective, observational study between March 2011 and May 2013 at 26 emergency departments. Convenience sample of previously healthy febrile infants 60 days and younger who were evaluated for SBIs. Data were analyzed between April 2014 and April 2018. Exposures: Clinical and laboratory data (blood and urine) including patient demographics, fever height and duration, clinical appearance, WBC, absolute neutrophil count (ANC), serum procalcitonin, and urinalysis. We derived and validated a prediction rule based on these variables using binary recursive partitioning analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Serious bacterial infection, defined as urinary tract infection, bacteremia, or bacterial meningitis. Results: We derived the prediction rule on a random sample of 908 infants and validated it on 913 infants (mean age was 36 days, 765 were girls [42%], 781 were white and non-Hispanic [43%], 366 were black [20%], and 535 were Hispanic [29%]). Serious bacterial infections were present in 170 of 1821 infants (9.3%), including 26 (1.4%) with bacteremia, 151 (8.3%) with urinary tract infections, and 10 (0.5%) with bacterial meningitis; 16 (0.9%) had concurrent SBIs. The prediction rule identified infants at low risk of SBI using a negative urinalysis result, an ANC of 4090/;L or less (to convert to ×10 9 per liter, multiply by 0.001), and serum procalcitonin of 1.71 ng/mL or less. In the validation cohort, the rule sensitivity was 97.7% (95% CI, 91.3-99.6), specificity was 60.0% (95% CI, 56.6-63.3), negative predictive value was 99.6% (95% CI, 98.4-99.9), and negative likelihood ratio was 0.04 (95% CI, 0.01-0.15). One infant with bacteremia and 2 infants with urinary tract infections were misclassified. No patients with bacterial meningitis were missed by the rule. The rule performance was nearly identical when the outcome was restricted to bacteremia and/or bacterial meningitis, missing the same infant with bacteremia. Conclusions and Relevance: We derived and validated an accurate prediction rule to identify febrile infants 60 days and younger at low risk for SBIs using the urinalysis, ANC, and procalcitonin levels. Once further validated on an independent cohort, clinical application of the rule has the potential to decrease unnecessary lumbar punctures, antibiotic administration, and hospitalizations..

AB - Importance: In young febrile infants, serious bacterial infections (SBIs), including urinary tract infections, bacteremia, and meningitis, may lead to dangerous complications. However, lumbar punctures and hospitalizations involve risks and costs. Clinical prediction rules using biomarkers beyond the white blood cell count (WBC) may accurately identify febrile infants at low risk for SBIs. Objective: To derive and validate a prediction rule to identify febrile infants 60 days and younger at low risk for SBIs. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective, observational study between March 2011 and May 2013 at 26 emergency departments. Convenience sample of previously healthy febrile infants 60 days and younger who were evaluated for SBIs. Data were analyzed between April 2014 and April 2018. Exposures: Clinical and laboratory data (blood and urine) including patient demographics, fever height and duration, clinical appearance, WBC, absolute neutrophil count (ANC), serum procalcitonin, and urinalysis. We derived and validated a prediction rule based on these variables using binary recursive partitioning analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Serious bacterial infection, defined as urinary tract infection, bacteremia, or bacterial meningitis. Results: We derived the prediction rule on a random sample of 908 infants and validated it on 913 infants (mean age was 36 days, 765 were girls [42%], 781 were white and non-Hispanic [43%], 366 were black [20%], and 535 were Hispanic [29%]). Serious bacterial infections were present in 170 of 1821 infants (9.3%), including 26 (1.4%) with bacteremia, 151 (8.3%) with urinary tract infections, and 10 (0.5%) with bacterial meningitis; 16 (0.9%) had concurrent SBIs. The prediction rule identified infants at low risk of SBI using a negative urinalysis result, an ANC of 4090/;L or less (to convert to ×10 9 per liter, multiply by 0.001), and serum procalcitonin of 1.71 ng/mL or less. In the validation cohort, the rule sensitivity was 97.7% (95% CI, 91.3-99.6), specificity was 60.0% (95% CI, 56.6-63.3), negative predictive value was 99.6% (95% CI, 98.4-99.9), and negative likelihood ratio was 0.04 (95% CI, 0.01-0.15). One infant with bacteremia and 2 infants with urinary tract infections were misclassified. No patients with bacterial meningitis were missed by the rule. The rule performance was nearly identical when the outcome was restricted to bacteremia and/or bacterial meningitis, missing the same infant with bacteremia. Conclusions and Relevance: We derived and validated an accurate prediction rule to identify febrile infants 60 days and younger at low risk for SBIs using the urinalysis, ANC, and procalcitonin levels. Once further validated on an independent cohort, clinical application of the rule has the potential to decrease unnecessary lumbar punctures, antibiotic administration, and hospitalizations..

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