A guide to gathering expert estimates The treatment of unscientific data

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

For various reasons, decision makers are often forced to use unscientific data-personal estimates made by experts using existing objective data plus personal insights. Some persons feel the use of "guesstimates" should be avoided or minimized. The author, however, feels that decision making in the face of uncertainty inevitably requires personal judgments and estimates, and believes that there are advantages to explicating and quantifying them. He examines three problems in gathering and using such data. The first concerns the methods used to obtain estimates from a single expert. The second deals with the problem of pooling estimates. The third concerns explicating the assumptions to increase confidence in the reliability of the expert.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)79-87
Number of pages9
JournalBusiness Horizons
Volume13
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1970

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Business and International Management
  • Marketing

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