### Abstract

Estimates of the Galactic coalescence rate (R) of close binaries with two neutron stars (NS-NS) are known to be uncertain by large factors (about two orders of magnitude) mainly due to the small number of systems detected as binary radio pulsars. We present an analysis method that allows us to estimate the Galactic NS-NS coalescence using the current observed sample and, importantly, to assign a statistical significance to these estimates and to calculate the allowed ranges of values at various confidence levels. The method involves the simulation of selection effects inherent in all relevant radio pulsar surveys and a Bayesian statistical analysis for the probability distribution of R. The most likely values for the total Galactic coalescence rate (R_{tot}) lie in the range 2-60 Myr^{-1} depending on different pulsar population models. For our reference model 1, where the most likely estimates of pulsar population properties are adopted, we obtain R_{tot} = 8_{-5}^{+9} Myr^{-1} at a 68% statistical confidence level. The corresponding range of expected detections rates of NS-NS inspiral are 3_{-2}^{+4} × 10^{-3} yr^{-1} for the initial LIGO and 18_{-11}^{+21} yr_{-1} for the advanced LIGO.

Original language | English (US) |
---|---|

Pages (from-to) | 134-145 |

Number of pages | 12 |

Journal | Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering |

Volume | 4856 |

DOIs | |

State | Published - Dec 1 2002 |

Event | Gravitational - Wave Detection - Waikoloa, HI, United States Duration: Aug 23 2002 → Aug 25 2002 |

### Fingerprint

### Keywords

- Binaries: close
- Gravitational waves
- Stars: neutron

### ASJC Scopus subject areas

- Electronic, Optical and Magnetic Materials
- Condensed Matter Physics
- Computer Science Applications
- Applied Mathematics
- Electrical and Electronic Engineering

### Cite this

*Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering*,

*4856*, 134-145. https://doi.org/10.1117/12.458969

}

*Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering*, vol. 4856, pp. 134-145. https://doi.org/10.1117/12.458969

**A new method for estimates of binary pulsar coalescence rates.** / Kalogera, Vicky; Kim, C.; Lorimer, D. R.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Conference article

TY - JOUR

T1 - A new method for estimates of binary pulsar coalescence rates

AU - Kalogera, Vicky

AU - Kim, C.

AU - Lorimer, D. R.

PY - 2002/12/1

Y1 - 2002/12/1

N2 - Estimates of the Galactic coalescence rate (R) of close binaries with two neutron stars (NS-NS) are known to be uncertain by large factors (about two orders of magnitude) mainly due to the small number of systems detected as binary radio pulsars. We present an analysis method that allows us to estimate the Galactic NS-NS coalescence using the current observed sample and, importantly, to assign a statistical significance to these estimates and to calculate the allowed ranges of values at various confidence levels. The method involves the simulation of selection effects inherent in all relevant radio pulsar surveys and a Bayesian statistical analysis for the probability distribution of R. The most likely values for the total Galactic coalescence rate (Rtot) lie in the range 2-60 Myr-1 depending on different pulsar population models. For our reference model 1, where the most likely estimates of pulsar population properties are adopted, we obtain Rtot = 8-5+9 Myr-1 at a 68% statistical confidence level. The corresponding range of expected detections rates of NS-NS inspiral are 3-2+4 × 10-3 yr-1 for the initial LIGO and 18-11+21 yr-1 for the advanced LIGO.

AB - Estimates of the Galactic coalescence rate (R) of close binaries with two neutron stars (NS-NS) are known to be uncertain by large factors (about two orders of magnitude) mainly due to the small number of systems detected as binary radio pulsars. We present an analysis method that allows us to estimate the Galactic NS-NS coalescence using the current observed sample and, importantly, to assign a statistical significance to these estimates and to calculate the allowed ranges of values at various confidence levels. The method involves the simulation of selection effects inherent in all relevant radio pulsar surveys and a Bayesian statistical analysis for the probability distribution of R. The most likely values for the total Galactic coalescence rate (Rtot) lie in the range 2-60 Myr-1 depending on different pulsar population models. For our reference model 1, where the most likely estimates of pulsar population properties are adopted, we obtain Rtot = 8-5+9 Myr-1 at a 68% statistical confidence level. The corresponding range of expected detections rates of NS-NS inspiral are 3-2+4 × 10-3 yr-1 for the initial LIGO and 18-11+21 yr-1 for the advanced LIGO.

KW - Binaries: close

KW - Gravitational waves

KW - Stars: neutron

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0037516879&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0037516879&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1117/12.458969

DO - 10.1117/12.458969

M3 - Conference article

AN - SCOPUS:0037516879

VL - 4856

SP - 134

EP - 145

JO - Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering

JF - Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering

SN - 0277-786X

ER -