A population forecast as a database: Implementing the stochastic propagation of error

Juha M. Alho, Bruce D. Spencer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

We propose implementing popu lation forecasts as databases. This has two advantages. First, users can retrieve custom forecasts to suit their particular needs. Second, the forecasts can include prob abilistic prediction intervals that allow the user to assess the uncertainty of the forecast. A major contribution of the paper is the derivation of propagation of error formulas that are needed to calculate the probabilistic intervals. A computer program implement ing a simple version of a stochastic popu lation forecast is described.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)295-310
Number of pages16
JournalJournal of Official Statistics
Volume7
Issue number3
StatePublished - Dec 1 1991

Keywords

  • Databases
  • Population projections
  • Propagation of error
  • Stochastic methods
  • Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability

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