Accounting for fertility decline during the transition to growth

Matthias Doepke

doi:10.1023/B:JOEG.0000038935.84627.e4

Accounting for fertility decline during the transition to growth

Matthias Doepke^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

239 Scopus citations

Abstract

In every developed country, the economic transition from pre-industrial stagnation to modern growth was accompanied by a demographic transition from high to low fertility. Even though the overall pattern is repeated, there are large cross-country variations in the timing and speed of the demographic transition. What accounts for falling fertility during the transition to growth? To answer this question, this paper develops a unified growth model that delivers a transition from stagnation to growth, accompanied by declining fertility. The model is used to determine whether government policies that affect the opportunity cost of education can account for cross-country variations in fertility decline. Among the policies considered, education subsidies are found to have only minor effects, while accounting for child labor regulation is crucial. Apart from influencing fertility, the policies also determine the evolution of the income distribution in the course of development.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	347-383
Number of pages	37
Journal	Journal of Economic Growth
Volume	9
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1023/B:JOEG.0000038935.84627.e4
State	Published - Sep 2004

Funding

This paper is based on my Ph.D. dissertation at the University of Chicago (2000). I am grateful to Gary Becker, Edward Prescott, Robert Townsend, and especially Robert Lucas for their guidance and encouragement. Workshop participants at Chicago, the SED annual meetings, the Max Planck Institute for Demography, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Wharton, Pennsylvania, Boston University, Western Ontario, UCLA, Stanford, Rochester, Virginia, UCL, Cambridge, IIES, Illinois, Minnesota, USC, UC Riverside, Duke, and Brown provided many helpful comments. I also benefited from suggestions by Sylvain Dessy, Oded Galor, Dirk Krueger, Lee Ohanian, Daria Zakharova, Rui Zhao, and an anonymous referee. Financial su pport by the National Science Foundation (grant SES-0217051) is gratefully acknowledged.

Keywords

Child labor
Education
Fertility
Growth
Inequality

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Economics and Econometrics

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1023/B:JOEG.0000038935.84627.e4

Cite this

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title = "Accounting for fertility decline during the transition to growth",

abstract = "In every developed country, the economic transition from pre-industrial stagnation to modern growth was accompanied by a demographic transition from high to low fertility. Even though the overall pattern is repeated, there are large cross-country variations in the timing and speed of the demographic transition. What accounts for falling fertility during the transition to growth? To answer this question, this paper develops a unified growth model that delivers a transition from stagnation to growth, accompanied by declining fertility. The model is used to determine whether government policies that affect the opportunity cost of education can account for cross-country variations in fertility decline. Among the policies considered, education subsidies are found to have only minor effects, while accounting for child labor regulation is crucial. Apart from influencing fertility, the policies also determine the evolution of the income distribution in the course of development.",

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note = "Funding Information: This paper is based on my Ph.D. dissertation at the University of Chicago (2000). I am grateful to Gary Becker, Edward Prescott, Robert Townsend, and especially Robert Lucas for their guidance and encouragement. Workshop participants at Chicago, the SED annual meetings, the Max Planck Institute for Demography, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Wharton, Pennsylvania, Boston University, Western Ontario, UCLA, Stanford, Rochester, Virginia, UCL, Cambridge, IIES, Illinois, Minnesota, USC, UC Riverside, Duke, and Brown provided many helpful comments. I also benefited from suggestions by Sylvain Dessy, Oded Galor, Dirk Krueger, Lee Ohanian, Daria Zakharova, Rui Zhao, and an anonymous referee. Financial su pport by the National Science Foundation (grant SES-0217051) is gratefully acknowledged.",

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N2 - In every developed country, the economic transition from pre-industrial stagnation to modern growth was accompanied by a demographic transition from high to low fertility. Even though the overall pattern is repeated, there are large cross-country variations in the timing and speed of the demographic transition. What accounts for falling fertility during the transition to growth? To answer this question, this paper develops a unified growth model that delivers a transition from stagnation to growth, accompanied by declining fertility. The model is used to determine whether government policies that affect the opportunity cost of education can account for cross-country variations in fertility decline. Among the policies considered, education subsidies are found to have only minor effects, while accounting for child labor regulation is crucial. Apart from influencing fertility, the policies also determine the evolution of the income distribution in the course of development.

AB - In every developed country, the economic transition from pre-industrial stagnation to modern growth was accompanied by a demographic transition from high to low fertility. Even though the overall pattern is repeated, there are large cross-country variations in the timing and speed of the demographic transition. What accounts for falling fertility during the transition to growth? To answer this question, this paper develops a unified growth model that delivers a transition from stagnation to growth, accompanied by declining fertility. The model is used to determine whether government policies that affect the opportunity cost of education can account for cross-country variations in fertility decline. Among the policies considered, education subsidies are found to have only minor effects, while accounting for child labor regulation is crucial. Apart from influencing fertility, the policies also determine the evolution of the income distribution in the course of development.

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KW - Inequality

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Accounting for fertility decline during the transition to growth

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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