Analysis of Choice Expectations in Incomplete Scenarios

Charles F. Manski*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

46 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper studies the use of probabilistic expectations data to predict behavior in incomplete scenarios posed by the researcher. The information that respondents have when replying to questions posing incomplete scenarios is a subset of the information that they would have in actual choice settings. Hence such questions do not elicit pure statements of preference; they elicit preferences mixed with expectations of future events that may affect choice behavior. The analysis developed here assumes respondents recognize that their behavior may depend on information they do not have when expectations are elicited, and that they answer coherently and honestly given the information provided. The objective in imagining such ideal respondents is to place a logical upper bound on the predictive content of elicited choice expectations.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)49-66
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of Risk and Uncertainty
Volume19
Issue number1-3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1999

Keywords

  • Hypothetical choice
  • Intentions
  • Revealed preference
  • Scenarios

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Accounting
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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