Analysis of equilibrium automobile holdings in Israel with aggregate discrete choice models

Charles F. Manski*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Scopus citations

Abstract

Models of household vehicle ownership decisions do not suffice as a basis for forecasting the size and composition of aggregate vehicle holdings. Forecasting applications require that such models be imbedded in systems describing the operation of the automobile market. This paper presents a new model of short run equilibrium in the automobile market. The short run is a period within which new car designs and prices are fixed but used car prices adjust competitively to market forces. The magnitude and mix of new car sales, the extent of used car scrappage and the composition of used car holdings are determined in equilibrium with used car prices. An econometric version of the market model has been estimated on Israeli data and applied to analyze the impact of vehicle tax policy on automobile holdings in Israel. The paper describes this application.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)373-389
Number of pages17
JournalTransportation Research Part B
Volume17
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 1983

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Transportation

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