Application of machine learning to determine top predictors of noncalcified coronary burden in psoriasis: An observational cohort study

Eric Munger, Harry Choi, Amit K. Dey, Youssef A. Elnabawi, Jacob W. Groenendyk, Justin Rodante, Andrew Keel, Milena Aksentijevich, Aarthi S. Reddy, Noor Khalil, Jenis Argueta-Amaya, Martin P. Playford, Julie Erb-Alvarez, Xin Tian, Colin Wu, Johann E. Gudjonsson, Lam C. Tsoi, Mohsin Saleet Jafri, Veit Sandfort, Marcus Y. ChenSanjiv J. Shah, David A. Bluemke, Benjamin Lockshin, Ahmed Hasan, Joel M. Gelfand, Nehal N. Mehta*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: Psoriasis is associated with elevated risk of heart attack and increased accumulation of subclinical noncalcified coronary burden by coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). Machine learning algorithms have been shown to effectively analyze well-characterized data sets. Objective: In this study, we used machine learning algorithms to determine the top predictors of noncalcified coronary burden by CCTA in psoriasis. Methods: The analysis included 263 consecutive patients with 63 available variables from the Psoriasis Atherosclerosis Cardiometabolic Initiative. The random forest algorithm was used to determine the top predictors of noncalcified coronary burden by CCTA. We evaluated our results using linear regression models. Results: Using the random forest algorithm, we found that the top 10 predictors of noncalcified coronary burden were body mass index, visceral adiposity, total adiposity, apolipoprotein A1, high-density lipoprotein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, subcutaneous adiposity, small low-density lipoprotein particle, cholesterol efflux capacity and the absolute granulocyte count. Linear regression of noncalcified coronary burden yielded results consistent with our machine learning output. Limitation: We were unable to provide external validation and did not study cardiovascular events. Conclusion: Machine learning methods identified the top predictors of noncalcified coronary burden in psoriasis. These factors were related to obesity, dyslipidemia, and inflammation, showing that these are important targets when treating comorbidities in psoriasis.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1647-1653
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of the American Academy of Dermatology
Volume83
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2020

Keywords

  • atherosclerosis
  • cardiometabolic disease
  • coronary artery disease
  • machine learning
  • psoriasis
  • random forest algorithm

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Dermatology

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