A judgmental method for evaluating the impacts of complex and large scale physical systems is presented. It is based upon a simplifying linear model of the impact process. The method is intended for application to situations in which scientific analysis of the actual impact process is not feasible. The linear model allows the impact problem to be dissected into many specific questions that can be presented to experts for judgmental response. It is also design interactive, in that the evaluation is repeated several times. After each iteration, redesign recommendations are transmitted to the system designers, who attempt to make appropriate modifications prior to the next round of evaluation. Many questions can be raised about the validity of the numbers that are produced by the method. However, the numerical judgmental process can be viewed as an educational and catalytic game that requires the experts to dissect and examine each system carefully, and stimulates comments about impacts and design improvements.
|Original language||English (US)|
|Number of pages||8|
|State||Published - Jan 1 1974|
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