TY - JOUR
T1 - Association between youth homicides and state spending
T2 - A Chicago cross-sectional case study
AU - Mason, Maryann
AU - McLone, Suzanne
AU - Monuteaux, Michael C.
AU - Sheehan, Karen
AU - Lee, Lois K.
AU - Fleegler, Eric W.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022.
PY - 2022/1/24
Y1 - 2022/1/24
N2 - Objective To identify contributing factors associated with rapid spikes and declines in Chicago youth homicide from 2009 to 2018. Setting City of Chicago, Illinois, US 2009-2018. Participants Homicide count data come from the National Violent Death Reporting System. The study included information on 2271 homicide decedents between the ages of 15 and 24 who died between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2018. Of these decedents, 92.9% were male; 79.1% were non-Hispanic black; and 94.9% died from a firearm injury. Primary and secondary outcome measures (A) Temporal shifts in monthly homicide rates and (B) temporal associations between social, environmental and economic conditions/events and fluctuations in homicides. Results We found statistically significant shifts in homicide rates over time: a 77% rise in monthly youth homicide rates per 100 000 persons from 2015 to 2016 (4.3 vs 7.5); dropping back to pre-2015 rates (4.3) by mid-2017. There was a temporal co-occurrence between the rapid rise in youth homicides and absence of a state budget. Conversely, we found a temporal co-occurrence of the sharp decline in homicides with the reinstatement of a state budget. Adjusting for seasonality, we found death rates were greater in the months without a budget compared with months with a budget (1.48, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.70). Conclusions Our findings suggest that state funding may be a potential protective factor against youth homicide.
AB - Objective To identify contributing factors associated with rapid spikes and declines in Chicago youth homicide from 2009 to 2018. Setting City of Chicago, Illinois, US 2009-2018. Participants Homicide count data come from the National Violent Death Reporting System. The study included information on 2271 homicide decedents between the ages of 15 and 24 who died between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2018. Of these decedents, 92.9% were male; 79.1% were non-Hispanic black; and 94.9% died from a firearm injury. Primary and secondary outcome measures (A) Temporal shifts in monthly homicide rates and (B) temporal associations between social, environmental and economic conditions/events and fluctuations in homicides. Results We found statistically significant shifts in homicide rates over time: a 77% rise in monthly youth homicide rates per 100 000 persons from 2015 to 2016 (4.3 vs 7.5); dropping back to pre-2015 rates (4.3) by mid-2017. There was a temporal co-occurrence between the rapid rise in youth homicides and absence of a state budget. Conversely, we found a temporal co-occurrence of the sharp decline in homicides with the reinstatement of a state budget. Adjusting for seasonality, we found death rates were greater in the months without a budget compared with months with a budget (1.48, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.70). Conclusions Our findings suggest that state funding may be a potential protective factor against youth homicide.
KW - epidemiology
KW - non-accidental injury
KW - public health
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85123905661&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-052933
DO - 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-052933
M3 - Article
C2 - 35074815
AN - SCOPUS:85123905661
SN - 2044-6055
VL - 12
JO - BMJ Open
JF - BMJ Open
IS - 1
M1 - e052933
ER -
