BAYESIAN STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF CONCRETE CREEP AND SHRINKAGE.

Zdenek P. Bazant*, Jenn Chuan Chern

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

51 Scopus citations

Abstract

Inpresent design practice, the statistical approach is used for strength but not for deformations, including creep and shrinkage. However, predicting concrete creep properties from design strength and concrete composition involves a large uncertainty, much larger than that of strength. It is shown that by carrying out some short-time creep measurements, even rather limited ones, the uncertainty can be drastically reduced, and extrapolation of short-time measurements can be made much more reliable. This is accomplished by developing a Bayesian approach to creep prediction. This information is combined, according to Bayes' theorem, with the probability of a given concrete's creep values to yield the posterior probability distribution of the creep values for any load duration and age at loading. Only a linear creep case is considered, and a normal distribution of errors is assumed for the given concrete as well as for the prior information.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)319-330
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of the American Concrete Institute
Volume81
Issue number4
StatePublished - 1984

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Engineering

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