TY - JOUR

T1 - BAYESIAN STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF CONCRETE CREEP AND SHRINKAGE.

AU - Bazant, Zdenek P.

AU - Chern, Jenn Chuan

PY - 1984

Y1 - 1984

N2 - Inpresent design practice, the statistical approach is used for strength but not for deformations, including creep and shrinkage. However, predicting concrete creep properties from design strength and concrete composition involves a large uncertainty, much larger than that of strength. It is shown that by carrying out some short-time creep measurements, even rather limited ones, the uncertainty can be drastically reduced, and extrapolation of short-time measurements can be made much more reliable. This is accomplished by developing a Bayesian approach to creep prediction. This information is combined, according to Bayes' theorem, with the probability of a given concrete's creep values to yield the posterior probability distribution of the creep values for any load duration and age at loading. Only a linear creep case is considered, and a normal distribution of errors is assumed for the given concrete as well as for the prior information.

AB - Inpresent design practice, the statistical approach is used for strength but not for deformations, including creep and shrinkage. However, predicting concrete creep properties from design strength and concrete composition involves a large uncertainty, much larger than that of strength. It is shown that by carrying out some short-time creep measurements, even rather limited ones, the uncertainty can be drastically reduced, and extrapolation of short-time measurements can be made much more reliable. This is accomplished by developing a Bayesian approach to creep prediction. This information is combined, according to Bayes' theorem, with the probability of a given concrete's creep values to yield the posterior probability distribution of the creep values for any load duration and age at loading. Only a linear creep case is considered, and a normal distribution of errors is assumed for the given concrete as well as for the prior information.

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M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:0021461361

SN - 0002-8061

VL - 81

SP - 319

EP - 330

JO - Journal of the American Concrete Institute

JF - Journal of the American Concrete Institute

IS - 4

ER -