Abstract
This paper concerns the interaction between technological creativity and political competition. The paper is based on the observation that technological progress encounters resistance from various groups that believe they stand to lose from innovation. These pressure groups will try to manipulate the political system to suppress successful innovation. Modelling this political struggle as a stochastic process with endogenous institutional adaptation is attempted using a simulation based on urn models. Under fairly general conditions, it can be shown that the single economy will move inexorably to an absorbing barrier of technological stagnation. This process is referred to as Cardwell's Law. The paper then proceeds to show whether Cardwell's Law also holds in a world in which a number of separate economies compete with each other. It is shown that in a world with multiple economies Cardwell's Law does not hold even if it holds for each economy separately. This is consistent with the historical observation that political competition may be conducive to technological progress.
| Language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages | 561-574 |
| Number of pages | 14 |
| Journal | Research Policy |
| Volume | 23 |
| Issue number | 5 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jan 1 1994 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Strategy and Management
- Management Science and Operations Research
- Management of Technology and Innovation
Cite this
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Cardwell's Law and the political economy of technological progress. / Mokyr, Joel.
In: Research Policy, Vol. 23, No. 5, 01.01.1994, p. 561-574.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - Cardwell's Law and the political economy of technological progress
AU - Mokyr, Joel
PY - 1994/1/1
Y1 - 1994/1/1
N2 - This paper concerns the interaction between technological creativity and political competition. The paper is based on the observation that technological progress encounters resistance from various groups that believe they stand to lose from innovation. These pressure groups will try to manipulate the political system to suppress successful innovation. Modelling this political struggle as a stochastic process with endogenous institutional adaptation is attempted using a simulation based on urn models. Under fairly general conditions, it can be shown that the single economy will move inexorably to an absorbing barrier of technological stagnation. This process is referred to as Cardwell's Law. The paper then proceeds to show whether Cardwell's Law also holds in a world in which a number of separate economies compete with each other. It is shown that in a world with multiple economies Cardwell's Law does not hold even if it holds for each economy separately. This is consistent with the historical observation that political competition may be conducive to technological progress.
AB - This paper concerns the interaction between technological creativity and political competition. The paper is based on the observation that technological progress encounters resistance from various groups that believe they stand to lose from innovation. These pressure groups will try to manipulate the political system to suppress successful innovation. Modelling this political struggle as a stochastic process with endogenous institutional adaptation is attempted using a simulation based on urn models. Under fairly general conditions, it can be shown that the single economy will move inexorably to an absorbing barrier of technological stagnation. This process is referred to as Cardwell's Law. The paper then proceeds to show whether Cardwell's Law also holds in a world in which a number of separate economies compete with each other. It is shown that in a world with multiple economies Cardwell's Law does not hold even if it holds for each economy separately. This is consistent with the historical observation that political competition may be conducive to technological progress.
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0007203890&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/0048-7333(94)01006-4
DO - 10.1016/0048-7333(94)01006-4
M3 - Article
VL - 23
SP - 561
EP - 574
JO - Research Policy
T2 - Research Policy
JF - Research Policy
SN - 0048-7333
IS - 5
ER -