Cash cropping, farm technologies, and deforestation: What are the connections? A model with empirical data from the Bolivian Amazon

Research suggests that cash cropping is positively associated with deforestation. We use three-year data (2000-2002, inclusive) from 493 households to estimate the association between cash cropping rice and deforestation. Doubling the area sown with rice is associated with a 26-30 percent increase in the area of forest cleared during the next cropping season. We simulate the changes in rice cultivation to reach a daily income level of S1 person from cash cropping rice. We find that within 10 years: (1) the amount of deforestation would triple, (2) work requirements would exceed household's labor availability, and (3) fallows duration would decrease two-fold. To avoid the increase of deforestation from cash cropping requires increasing productivity, diversification of income sources, or both.