Change in waist circumference over 11 years and current waist circumference independently predict elevated CRP in filipino women

C-reactive protein, a marker of chronic, low-grade inflammation, is strongly associated with current central adiposity, and has been linked to elevated risk of cardiovascular disease. Less is known about the contribution of longitudinal change in waist circumference to current inflammation. We evaluated the extent to which current waist circumference and change over an 11-year interval contribute independently to low-grade systemic inflammation measured in a group of 1,294 women, 35-69 years, participating in the Cebu Longitudinal Nutrition and Health Survey in the Philippines. Waist circumference was measured at the time of blood draw for CRP analysis in 2005 and during an earlier survey in 1994. A waist circumference delta variable was constructed by subtracting current circumference from past circumference. We used logistic regression models to predict having an elevated plasma CRP concentration (3 mg L^-1 < CRP < 10 mg L^-1). Waist circumference in 2005 was a strong predictor of elevated CRP (OR 1.10, 95% CI = 1.08, 1.12, P < 0.001). In combined models, increase in circumference over 11 years was a significant and independent predictor of elevated CRP risk (OR = 1.023, 95% CI = 1.00, 1.05, P < 0.05). Considering the average increase over time, the cumulative risk of elevated CRP due to increased central adiposity was 25.7%. However, women who reduced their waist circumference between 1994 and 2005 had greatly reduced risk (6.2%), suggesting that even long-term inflammatory burden can be reversed by weight loss. Although current waist circumference is an important contributor to risk of elevated systemic inflammation in this as in other populations, history of central adiposity may be an independent phenomenon.