TY - JOUR
T1 - Changing dynamics of the drug overdose epidemic in the United States from 1979 through 2016
AU - Jalal, Hawre
AU - Buchanich, Jeanine M.
AU - Roberts, Mark S.
AU - Balmert, Lauren C.
AU - Zhang, Kun
AU - Burke, Donald S.
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank reviewers from the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control and the National Centers for Health Statistics for improvements to the manuscript. Funding: This study was supported in part by CDC grant IPA 16IPA1605230 and NIH/NCATS grant 1KL2TR0001856 (H.J.) and by Robert Wood Johnson Foundation grant 72858 (J.M.B. and D.S.B.) .
Publisher Copyright:
2017 © The Authors, some rights reserved.
PY - 2018/9/21
Y1 - 2018/9/21
N2 - Better understanding of the dynamics of the current U.S. overdose epidemic may aid in the development of more effective prevention and control strategies. We analyzed records of 599,255 deaths from 1979 through 2016 from the National Vital Statistics System in which accidental drug poisoning was identified as the main cause of death. By examining all available data on accidental poisoning deaths back to 1979 and showing that the overall 38-year curve is exponential, we provide evidence that the current wave of opioid overdose deaths (due to prescription opioids, heroin, and fentanyl) may just be the latest manifestation of a more fundamental longer-term process. The 38+ year smooth exponential curve of total U.S. annual accidental drug poisoning deaths is a composite of multiple distinctive subepidemics of different drugs (primarily prescription opioids, heroin, methadone, synthetic opioids, cocaine, and methamphetamine), each with its own specific demographic and geographic characteristics.
AB - Better understanding of the dynamics of the current U.S. overdose epidemic may aid in the development of more effective prevention and control strategies. We analyzed records of 599,255 deaths from 1979 through 2016 from the National Vital Statistics System in which accidental drug poisoning was identified as the main cause of death. By examining all available data on accidental poisoning deaths back to 1979 and showing that the overall 38-year curve is exponential, we provide evidence that the current wave of opioid overdose deaths (due to prescription opioids, heroin, and fentanyl) may just be the latest manifestation of a more fundamental longer-term process. The 38+ year smooth exponential curve of total U.S. annual accidental drug poisoning deaths is a composite of multiple distinctive subepidemics of different drugs (primarily prescription opioids, heroin, methadone, synthetic opioids, cocaine, and methamphetamine), each with its own specific demographic and geographic characteristics.
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U2 - 10.1126/science.aau1184
DO - 10.1126/science.aau1184
M3 - Article
C2 - 30237320
AN - SCOPUS:85054012422
VL - 361
JO - Science
JF - Science
SN - 0036-8075
IS - 6408
M1 - eaau1184
ER -