Communicating uncertainty in policy analysis

Charles F. Manski*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

The term “policy analysis” describes scientific evaluations of the impacts of past public policies and predictions of the outcomes of potential future policies. A prevalent practice has been to report policy analysis with incredible certitude. That is, exact predictions of policy outcomes are routine, while expressions of uncertainty are rare. However, predictions and estimates often are fragile, resting on unsupported assumptions and limited data. Therefore, the expressed certitude is not credible. This paper summarizes my work documenting incredible certitude and calling for transparent communication of uncertainty. I present a typology of practices that contribute to incredible certitude, give illustrative examples, and offer suggestions on how to communicate uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)7634-7641
Number of pages8
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume116
Issue number16
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 16 2019

Keywords

  • Communication of uncertainty
  • Incredible certitude
  • Policy analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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