Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high-frequency data and realized volatilities

Torben G. Andersen*, Tim Bollerslev, Nour Meddahi

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

147 Scopus citations

Abstract

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)279-296
Number of pages18
JournalEconometrica
Volume73
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 2005

Keywords

  • Continuous-time models
  • High-frequency data
  • Integrated volatility
  • Mincer-Zarnowitz regressions
  • Realized volatility
  • Time series forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

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