Criteria for rational prediction of creep and shrinkage of concrete

Zdenek P. Bazant*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

20 Scopus citations


This paper, supplementing the exposition of model 83 in this volume, examines various basic questions in fommlating and evaluating a prediction model for creep and shrinkage of concrete. Verification by comparisons to a few subjectively selected data sets is no longer justifiable because computers have made statistical compatisons to the existing intemationally accepted comprehensive data bank very easy. The statistics based on the data bank alone, l1owever, are insufficient. There are three further criteria: ( 1) After optimizing its coefficients, the prediction model should be capable of providing close fits of the individual test data covering a broad range of times, ages, humidities, thicknesses, etc.; (2) the model should have a rational, physically justified theoretical basis, and (3) should allow good and easy extrapolation of the short-time tests into long times, at high ages at loading, large thicknesses etc. The last criterion is paramount because good long-time predictions can be achieved only through updating based on short -time data for the given particular concrete. Various aspects of the B3 model and the GZ model (also appearing in this volume), recently considered by ACI Committee 209, as well as some aspects of the CEF-FIP model, are briefly analyzed in the light of these criteria, clarifYing their advantages and differences.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationThe Adam Neville Symposium
Subtitle of host publicationCreep and Shrinkage-Structural Design Effects
EditorsAkthem Al-Manaseer
PublisherAmerican Concrete Institute
Number of pages24
ISBN (Electronic)9780870316920
StatePublished - May 1 2000
Event1997 Adam Neville Symposium: Creep and Shrinkage-Structural Design Effects - Atlanta, United States
Duration: Nov 9 1997Nov 14 1997

Publication series

NameAmerican Concrete Institute, ACI Special Publication
ISSN (Print)0193-2527


Conference1997 Adam Neville Symposium: Creep and Shrinkage-Structural Design Effects
Country/TerritoryUnited States


  • Aging
  • Concrete
  • Creep
  • Design
  • Drying effects
  • Extrapolation
  • Prediction models
  • Shrinkage
  • Statistical evaluation
  • Updating
  • Viscoelasticity

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Building and Construction
  • General Materials Science


Dive into the research topics of 'Criteria for rational prediction of creep and shrinkage of concrete'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this