Decision makers as statisticians: Diversity, ambiguity, and learning

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

18 Scopus citations

Abstract

I study individuals who use frequentist models to draw uniform inferences from independent and identically distributed data. The main contribution of this paper is to show that distinct models may be consistent with empirical evidence, even in the limit when data increases without bound. Decision makers may then hold different beliefs and interpret their environment differently even though they know each other's model and base their inferences on the same evidence. The behavior modeled here is that of rational individuals confronting an environment in which learning is hard, rather than individuals beset by cognitive limitations or behavioral biases.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1371-1401
Number of pages31
JournalEconometrica
Volume77
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2009

Keywords

  • Belief formation
  • Learning
  • Statistical complexity

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

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