TY - JOUR
T1 - Demographic Consequences of Phenological Shifts in Response to Climate Change
AU - Iler, Amy Marie
AU - Caradonna, Paul J.
AU - Forrest, Jessica R.K.
AU - Post, Eric
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - When a phenological shift affects a demographic vital rate such as survival or reproduction, the altered vital rate may or may not have population-level consequences. We review the evidence that climate change affects populations by shifting species phenologies, emphasizing the importance of demographic life-history theory. We find many examples of phenological shifts having both positive and negative consequences for vital rates. Yet, few studies link phenological shifts to changes in vital rates known to drive population dynamics, especially in plants. When this link is made, results are largely consistent with life-history theory: Phenological shifts have population-level consequences when they affect survival in longer-lived organisms and reproduction in shorter-lived organisms. However, there are just as many cases in which demographic mechanisms buffer population growth from phenologically induced changes in vital rates. We provide recommendations for future research aiming to understand the complex relationships among climate, phenology, and demography, which will help to elucidate the extent to which phenological shifts actually alter population persistence.
AB - When a phenological shift affects a demographic vital rate such as survival or reproduction, the altered vital rate may or may not have population-level consequences. We review the evidence that climate change affects populations by shifting species phenologies, emphasizing the importance of demographic life-history theory. We find many examples of phenological shifts having both positive and negative consequences for vital rates. Yet, few studies link phenological shifts to changes in vital rates known to drive population dynamics, especially in plants. When this link is made, results are largely consistent with life-history theory: Phenological shifts have population-level consequences when they affect survival in longer-lived organisms and reproduction in shorter-lived organisms. However, there are just as many cases in which demographic mechanisms buffer population growth from phenologically induced changes in vital rates. We provide recommendations for future research aiming to understand the complex relationships among climate, phenology, and demography, which will help to elucidate the extent to which phenological shifts actually alter population persistence.
KW - Phenology
KW - phenological mismatch
KW - population growth rate
KW - synchrony
KW - trophic asynchrony
KW - vital rate
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U2 - 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-011921-032939
DO - 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-011921-032939
M3 - Review article
AN - SCOPUS:85118863624
VL - 52
SP - 221
EP - 245
JO - Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
JF - Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
SN - 1543-592X
ER -