Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections

Charles F. Manski, John V. Pepper

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

34 Scopus citations

Abstract

Objectives: Researchers have used repeated cross sectional observations of homicide rates and sanctions to examine the deterrent effect of the adoption and implementation of death penalty statutes. The empirical literature, however, has failed to achieve consensus. A fundamental problem is that the outcomes of counterfactual policies are not observable. Hence, the data alone cannot identify the deterrent effect of capital punishment. This paper asks how research should proceed. We seek to make transparent how assumptions shape inference. Methods: We study the identifying power of relatively weak assumptions restricting variation in treatment response across places and time. We perform empirical analysis using state-level data in the United States in 1975 and 1977. Results: The results are findings of partial identification that bound the deterrent effect of capital punishment. Under the weakest restrictions, there is substantial ambiguity: we cannot rule out the possibility that having a death penalty statute substantially increases or decreases homicide. This ambiguity is reduced when we impose stronger assumptions, but inferences are sensitive to the maintained restrictions. Conclusions: Imposing certain assumptions implies that adoption of a death penalty statute increases homicide, but other assumptions imply that the death penalty deters it. Thus, society at large can draw strong conclusions only if there is a consensus favoring particular assumptions. Without such a consensus, data on sanctions and murder rates cannot settle the debate about deterrence. However, data combined with weak assumptions can bound and focus the debate.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)123-141
Number of pages19
JournalJournal of Quantitative Criminology
Volume29
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2013

Funding

Acknowledgments An early version of this research was prepared for presentation at the National Research Council Workshop on Deterrence and the Death Penalty, April 2011. We have benefited from comments received at the workshop, the opportunity to present the work in seminars at the University of Bern, Northwestern University, and the University of Virginia, and the comments of Daniel Nagin. Manski’s research was supported in part by National Science Foundation grant SES-0911181.

Keywords

  • Bounding treatment effects
  • Capital punishment
  • Selection problem

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pathology and Forensic Medicine
  • Law

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this