Development and internal validation of a multivariable model to predict perinatal death in pregnancy hypertension

Beth A. Payne*, Henk Groen, U. Vivian Ukah, J. Mark Ansermino, Zulfiqar Bhutta, William Grobman, David R. Hall, Jennifer A. Hutcheon, Laura A. Magee, Peter Von Dadelszen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

Objective To develop and internally validate a prognostic model for perinatal death that could guide community-based antenatal care of women with a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) in low-resourced settings as part of a mobile health application. Study design Using data from 1688 women (110 (6.5%) perinatal deaths) admitted to hospital after 32 weeks gestation with a HDP from five low-resourced countries in the miniPIERS prospective cohort, a logistic regression model to predict perinatal death was developed and internally validated. Model discrimination, calibration, and classification accuracy were assessed and compared with use of gestational age alone to determine prognosis. Main outcome measures Stillbirth or neonatal death before hospital discharge. Results The final model included maternal age; a count of symptoms (0, 1 or ≥2); and dipstick proteinuria. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75 [95% CI 0.71-0.80]. The model correctly identified 42/110 (38.2%) additional cases as high-risk (probability >15%) of perinatal death compared with use of only gestational age <34 weeks at assessment with increased sensitivity (48.6% vs. 23.8%) and similar specificity (86.6% vs. 90.0%). Conclusion Using simple, routinely collected measures during antenatal care, we can identify women with a HDP who are at increased risk of perinatal death and who would benefit from transfer to facility-based care. This model requires external validation and assessment in an implementation study to confirm performance.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)315-321
Number of pages7
JournalPregnancy Hypertension
Volume5
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 2015

Keywords

  • Low-resourced setting
  • Perinatal death
  • Pre-eclampsia
  • Prognosis
  • Stillbirth

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Internal Medicine
  • Obstetrics and Gynecology

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    Payne, B. A., Groen, H., Ukah, U. V., Ansermino, J. M., Bhutta, Z., Grobman, W., Hall, D. R., Hutcheon, J. A., Magee, L. A., & Von Dadelszen, P. (2015). Development and internal validation of a multivariable model to predict perinatal death in pregnancy hypertension. Pregnancy Hypertension, 5(4), 315-321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.preghy.2015.08.006