Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida's Ex-Felons

Traci R Burch

doi:10.1007/s11109-010-9150-9

Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida's Ex-Felons

Traci R Burch^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Political Science

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

14 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper re-examines the impact of Florida's disfranchisement law on the 2000 Presidential election. The analysis simulates outcomes in Florida under scenarios consistent with the turnout rates of Georgia and North Carolina ex-felons in 2000 and Florida ex-felons in 2008. Survey evidence on candidate preferences as well as data on ex-felon party registration in Florida and North Carolina are used to produce estimates of support for Bush and Gore among ex-felons. Based on the simulations, the ex-felon population in Florida would have favored Bush in 2000. Assuming that ex-felons supported Gore at rates similar to GSS respondents with at most a high school diploma, Bush would have defeated Gore by 4,925 and 7,048 votes, assuming turnout of 10 and 15%, respectively.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	1-26
Number of pages	26
Journal	Political Behavior
Volume	34
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-010-9150-9
State	Published - Mar 1 2012

Keywords

2000 General election
Criminal justice
Felony disfranchisement
Voting behavior

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Sociology and Political Science

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Burch, T. R. (2012). Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida's Ex-Felons. Political Behavior, 34(1), 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-010-9150-9

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