Dividend Dynamics, Learning, and Expected Stock Index Returns

Ravi Jagannathan, Binying Liu

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

We develop a model for dividend dynamics and allow investors to learn about model parameters over time. The model predicts 31.3% of the variation in annual dividend growth rates during 1976-2013. We show that when investors' beliefs about the persistence of dividend growth rates increase, dividend-to-price ratios increase, and short-horizon stock returns decrease after controlling for dividend-to-price ratios. These findings support investors' preferences for early resolution of uncertainty. We embed learning about dividend dynamics into an equilibrium asset pricing model. The model predicts 22.9% of the variation in annual stock returns. Learning accounts for over forty-percent of the 22.9%.
Original languageEnglish (US)
PublisherNational Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Number of pages58
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015

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