Abstract
This study examined the relative importance of climate change and drinking-water treatment for gastrointestinal illness incidence in children (age <5 years) from period 2046–2065 compared to 1991–2010. The northern Wisconsin (USA) study focused on municipalities distributing untreated groundwater. A time-series analysis first quantified the observed (1991–2010) precipitation and gastrointestinal illness associations after controlling for seasonality and temporal trends. Precipitation likely transported pathogens into drinking-water sources or into leaking water-distribution networks. Building on observed relationships, the second analysis projected how climate change and drinking-water treatment installation may alter gastrointestinal illness incidence. Future precipitation values were modeled by 13 global climate models and three greenhouse-gas emissions levels. The second analysis was rerun using three pathways: (1) only climate change, (2) climate change and the same slow pace of treatment installation observed over 1991–2010, and (3) climate change and the rapid rate of installation observed over 2011–2016. The results illustrate the risks that climate change presents to small rural groundwater municipalities without drinking water treatment. Climate-change-related seasonal precipitation changes will marginally increase the gastrointestinal illness incidence rate (mean: ∼1.5%, range: −3.6–4.3%). A slow pace of treatment installation somewhat decreased precipitation-associated gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ∼3.0%, range: 0.2–7.8%) in spite of climate change. The rapid treatment installation rate largely decreases the gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ∼82.0%, range: 82.0–83.0%).
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 969-979 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Hydrogeology Journal |
| Volume | 25 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jun 1 2017 |
Funding
The DWSRF provided financial assistance to two municipalities in the study ($4.6 million USD) to install drinking water treatment and drill a new supply well. In Wisconsin, there are more projects that apply for financial assistance than are awarded funds; however, if the other study municipalities chose to apply for assistance, they would become high priority DWSRF projects. The financial assistance priority score is based on acute health effects from microbial organisms, population size, median household income, and county unemployment rate (Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and The Department of Administration ). This work was partially supported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (grant 1U01EH000428-01) and National PERISHIP Dissertation Fellowship funded by The National Science Foundation, University of Colorado Natural Hazards Center, Swiss Re, and the Public Entity Risk Institute. Stephen Vavrus, Kevin Braun, and Ruben Behnke kindly shared the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts climate projections. We thank Mark A. Borchardt, Joan B. Rose, and anonymous reviewers whose comments significantly improved the article.
Keywords
- Climate change
- Health
- Municipal groundwater
- Rainfall/runoff
- USA
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Water Science and Technology
- Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
