Dynamic global games of regime change: Learning, multiplicity, and the timing of attacks

George Marios Angeletos*, Christian Hellwig, Alessandro Pavan

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

136 Scopus citations

Abstract

Global games of regime change - coordination games of incomplete information in which a status quo is abandoned once a sufficiently large fraction of agents attack it - have been used to study crises phenomena such as currency attacks, bank runs, debt crises, and political change. We extend the static benchmark examined in the literature by allowing agents to take actions in many periods and to learn about the underlying fundamentals over time. We first provide a simple recursive algorithm for the characterization of monotone equilibria. We then show how the interaction of the knowledge that the regime survived past attacks with the arrival of information over time, or with changes in fundamentals, leads to interesting equilibrium properties. First, multiplicity may obtain under the same conditions on exogenous information that guarantee uniqueness in the static benchmark. Second, fundamentals may predict the eventual fate of the regime but not the timing or the number of attacks. Finally, equilibrium dynamics can alternate between phases of tranquility - where no attack is possible - and phases of distress - where a large attack can occur - even without changes in fundamentals.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)711-756
Number of pages46
JournalEconometrica
Volume75
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - May 2007

Keywords

  • Coordination
  • Crises
  • Global games
  • Information dynamics
  • Multiple equilibria

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

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