Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

Noelle I. Samia*, Kyrre Linné Kausrud, Hans Heesterbeek, Vladimir Ageyev, Mike Begon, Kung Sik Chan, Nils C. Stenseth

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

35 Scopus citations

Abstract

Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)14527-14532
Number of pages6
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume108
Issue number35
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 30 2011

Keywords

  • Climate forcing
  • Generalized threshold model
  • Spillover to the human population
  • Wildlife reservoir of Yersinia pestis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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