Estimation of percentiles of cycle time in manufacturing simulation

Feng Yang*, Bruce E. Ankenman, Barry L. Nelson

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

5 Scopus citations


Cycle time-throughput (CT-TH) percentile curves quantify the relationship between percentiles of cycle time and factory throughput, and they can play an important role in strategic planning for manufacturing systems. In this paper, a highly flexible distribution, the generalized gamma, is used to represent the underlying distribution of cycle time. To obtain CT-TH percentile curves, we fit metamodels for the first three CT-TH moment curves throughout the throughput range of interest, determine the parameters of the generalized gamma by matching moments, and obtain percentiles by inverting the distribution. To insure efficiency and control estimation error, simulation experiments are built up sequentially using a multistage procedure. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2005 Winter Simulation Conference
Number of pages10
StatePublished - 2005
Event2005 Winter Simulation Conference - Orlando, FL, United States
Duration: Dec 4 2005Dec 7 2005

Publication series

NameProceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
ISSN (Print)0891-7736


Other2005 Winter Simulation Conference
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityOrlando, FL

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Computer Science Applications


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