TY - GEN
T1 - Estimation of percentiles of cycle time in manufacturing simulation
AU - Yang, Feng
AU - Ankenman, Bruce E.
AU - Nelson, Barry L.
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2008 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2005
Y1 - 2005
N2 - Cycle time-throughput (CT-TH) percentile curves quantify the relationship between percentiles of cycle time and factory throughput, and they can play an important role in strategic planning for manufacturing systems. In this paper, a highly flexible distribution, the generalized gamma, is used to represent the underlying distribution of cycle time. To obtain CT-TH percentile curves, we fit metamodels for the first three CT-TH moment curves throughout the throughput range of interest, determine the parameters of the generalized gamma by matching moments, and obtain percentiles by inverting the distribution. To insure efficiency and control estimation error, simulation experiments are built up sequentially using a multistage procedure. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.
AB - Cycle time-throughput (CT-TH) percentile curves quantify the relationship between percentiles of cycle time and factory throughput, and they can play an important role in strategic planning for manufacturing systems. In this paper, a highly flexible distribution, the generalized gamma, is used to represent the underlying distribution of cycle time. To obtain CT-TH percentile curves, we fit metamodels for the first three CT-TH moment curves throughout the throughput range of interest, determine the parameters of the generalized gamma by matching moments, and obtain percentiles by inverting the distribution. To insure efficiency and control estimation error, simulation experiments are built up sequentially using a multistage procedure. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.
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U2 - 10.1109/WSC.2005.1574285
DO - 10.1109/WSC.2005.1574285
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:33846685966
SN - 0780395204
SN - 9780780395206
T3 - Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
SP - 475
EP - 484
BT - Proceedings of the 2005 Winter Simulation Conference
T2 - 2005 Winter Simulation Conference
Y2 - 4 December 2005 through 7 December 2005
ER -