External validation and extension of the NAPLS-2 and SIPS-RC personalized risk calculators in an independent clinical high-risk sample

K. Juston Osborne*, Vijay A. Mittal

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

Early identification of individuals likely to develop psychosis is a priority for the field, resulting in the development of risk calculators that provide personalized estimates that an individual at clinical high-risk (CHR) will develop psychosis. The North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS) consortium and Shanghai At-Risk for Psychosis program have recently developed such calculators (NAPLS-2/SIPS-RC, respectively), but their discrimination performance has never been examined within the same sample. Moreover, validation studies of NAPLS-2 are limited in number and the SIPS-RC has not been cross-validated in a North American sample. The present research (N = 68) used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to examine the accuracy of the NAPLS-2 and SIPS-RC calculators for discriminating CHR converters and non-converters, as well as extend their use by examining their ability to predict illness progression over a two-year period. For conversion, the NAPLS-2 and SIPS-RC risk calculators demonstrated moderate (AUC = 0.71) and fair (AUC = 0.65) discrimination performance, respectively. Both calculators provided moderate accuracy for discriminating illness progression over two-years (NAPLS-2 AUC = 0.71/ SIPS-RC AUC = 0.76). We discuss implications for researchers and practitioners interested in using the NAPLS-2 and/or SIPS-RC and identify important steps for future research.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)9-14
Number of pages6
JournalPsychiatry Research
Volume279
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 2019

Keywords

  • High-risk syndromes
  • Prodrome
  • Psychosis
  • Psychosis-risk prediction
  • Psychotic disorders
  • Risk calculator
  • Risk models

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Psychiatry and Mental health
  • Biological Psychiatry

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