Forecasting short-term freight transportation demand Poisson STARMA model

Rodrigo A. Garrido*, Hani S. Mahmassani

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

A framework for analyzing, describing, and forecasting freight flows for operational and tactical purposes is presented. A dynamic econometric model is proposed. This model incorporates the spatial and temporal characteristics of freight demand within a stochastic framework. The model was applied in an actual context and its performance was compared with standard time series models (benchmark) for forecasting ability. The proposed model outperformed the benchmark from the econometric viewpoint. Extensive diagnostic checking and sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the modeling methodology for short-term forecasting applications.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)8-16
Number of pages9
JournalTransportation Research Record
Issue number1645
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1998

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering

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