Foxes and sheep: effect of predictive logic in day-to-day dynamics of route choice behavior

In this study drivers are categorized into two groups, called first-level (sheep) or second-level (foxes) thinkers, based on extent of reliance on predictive logic in their day-to-day decision process. While the first-level thinkers are using the distributed information as the only contributor to their belief, the second-level thinkers strategize by means of predicting others’ behavior. The study shows how the proportion of the two user types will affect system travel times. Investigation is performed primarily through numerical experiments conducted in an idealized traffic system. There is a threshold for the proportion of the second-level thinkers, which minimizes the variability of the travel time in the traffic system. Below this value, the second-level thinkers benefit from using the foxy logic. This advantage decreases with increase in the proportion of the second-level thinkers and disappears once the threshold is exceeded. It is also shown that in a learning society, opportunistic behavior pays off less. Learning also reduces the system fluctuations, resulting in greater stability. Implications for advanced traveler information and intelligent system management are discussed.