Heart Failure Risk Distribution and Trends in the United States Population, NHANES 1999-2016

Peter A. Glynn, Hongyan Ning, Aakash Bavishi, Priya M. Freaney, Sanjiv Shah, Clyde W. Yancy, Donald M. Lloyd-Jones, Sadiya S. Khan*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Scopus citations


Background: Implementation of effective preventive interventions requires identification of high-risk individuals. We sought to define the distribution and trends of heart failure risk in the US population. Methods: We calculated 10-year predicted heart failure risk among a representative sample of US adults aged 30-79 years, without baseline cardiovascular disease, from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 1999-2016. We used the published Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) model, which integrates demographic and risk factor data, to estimate 10-year heart failure risk. Participants were stratified by NHANES cycle, sex, age, and race/ethnicity and by 10-year heart failure risk, defined as low (<1%), intermediate (1% to <5%), and high (≥5%). Results: From 1999-2000 to 2015-2016, mean predicted 10-year heart failure risk increased significantly from 2.0% to 3.0% (P < .05) in the population, most notably among non-Hispanic black (2.1% to 3.7%) and non-Hispanic white (2.4% to 3.6%) men. In 2013-2016, 17.6% of the studied population was at high predicted 10-year heart failure risk. The prevalence of high predicted heart failure risk was highest among non-Hispanic black men (23.1%), followed by non-Hispanic white men (19.2%) and non-Hispanic white women (17.9%). Discussion: Mean population risk of heart failure increased significantly from 1999-2016. A substantial proportion of US adults are at high 10-year heart failure risk (≥5%), particularly non-Hispanic black men. These data underscore the importance of identifiying individuals at increased heart failure risk for targeted prevention measures to reduce the future burden of heart failure.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)e153-e164
JournalAmerican journal of medicine
Issue number3
StatePublished - Mar 2021


  • Health disparities
  • Heart failure
  • Prevention
  • Risk stratification

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)


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