Abstract
Background: Implementation of effective preventive interventions requires identification of high-risk individuals. We sought to define the distribution and trends of heart failure risk in the US population. Methods: We calculated 10-year predicted heart failure risk among a representative sample of US adults aged 30-79 years, without baseline cardiovascular disease, from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 1999-2016. We used the published Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) model, which integrates demographic and risk factor data, to estimate 10-year heart failure risk. Participants were stratified by NHANES cycle, sex, age, and race/ethnicity and by 10-year heart failure risk, defined as low (<1%), intermediate (1% to <5%), and high (≥5%). Results: From 1999-2000 to 2015-2016, mean predicted 10-year heart failure risk increased significantly from 2.0% to 3.0% (P < .05) in the population, most notably among non-Hispanic black (2.1% to 3.7%) and non-Hispanic white (2.4% to 3.6%) men. In 2013-2016, 17.6% of the studied population was at high predicted 10-year heart failure risk. The prevalence of high predicted heart failure risk was highest among non-Hispanic black men (23.1%), followed by non-Hispanic white men (19.2%) and non-Hispanic white women (17.9%). Discussion: Mean population risk of heart failure increased significantly from 1999-2016. A substantial proportion of US adults are at high 10-year heart failure risk (≥5%), particularly non-Hispanic black men. These data underscore the importance of identifiying individuals at increased heart failure risk for targeted prevention measures to reduce the future burden of heart failure.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | e153-e164 |
Journal | American journal of medicine |
Volume | 134 |
Issue number | 3 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Mar 2021 |
Funding
Funding: Supported by grants from the National Institutes of Health ( NIH )/ National Heart, Lung, and Blood I nstitute ( KL2TR001424 ) and the American Heart Association ( #19TPA34890060 ) to SSK. Research reported in this publication was supported, in part, by the NIH's National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences , Grant Number KL2TR001424 (SSK). Funding: Supported by grants from the National Institutes of Health (NIH)/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (KL2TR001424) and the American Heart Association (#19TPA34890060) to SSK. Research reported in this publication was supported, in part, by the NIH's National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, Grant Number KL2TR001424 (SSK).
Keywords
- Health disparities
- Heart failure
- Prevention
- Risk stratification
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- General Medicine