Hybrid qualitative simulation of military operations

Thomas R Hinrichs*, Kenneth D Forbus, Johan De Kleer, Sungwook Yoon, Eric Jones, Robert Hyland, Jason Wilson

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

Our goal is to enable military planners to rapidly critique alternative battle plans by simulating multiple outcomes of adversarial plans. We describe a novel simulator, SimPath, that combines qualitative reasoning, a geographic information system (GIS), and targeted probabilistic calculations to envision how adversarial battle plans can play out. We outline the problem and describe the overall operation of the simulator. We then explain how qualitative process theory is extended with actions to model military tasks, how envisioning is factored to reduce combinatorial explosion, and how probabilities are computed for transitions and used to filter possibilities. Empirical results, including an experiment conducted by an independent evaluator, are summarized. The results show that it is possible to identify dozens of possible outcomes on each of 9 combinations of adversarial plans (COAs) in under two minutes. We close with a discussion of future work.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationAAAI-11 / IAAI-11 - Proceedings of the 25th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence and the 23rd Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference
Pages1655-1661
Number of pages7
StatePublished - Nov 2 2011
Event25th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence and the 23rd Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI-11 / IAAI-11 - San Francisco, CA, United States
Duration: Aug 7 2011Aug 11 2011

Publication series

NameProceedings of the National Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Volume2

Other

Other25th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence and the 23rd Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI-11 / IAAI-11
CountryUnited States
CitySan Francisco, CA
Period8/7/118/11/11

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Artificial Intelligence

Cite this

Hinrichs, T. R., Forbus, K. D., De Kleer, J., Yoon, S., Jones, E., Hyland, R., & Wilson, J. (2011). Hybrid qualitative simulation of military operations. In AAAI-11 / IAAI-11 - Proceedings of the 25th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence and the 23rd Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference (pp. 1655-1661). (Proceedings of the National Conference on Artificial Intelligence; Vol. 2).