TY - GEN
T1 - Hybrid qualitative simulation of military operations
AU - Hinrichs, Thomas R
AU - Forbus, Kenneth D
AU - De Kleer, Johan
AU - Yoon, Sungwook
AU - Jones, Eric
AU - Hyland, Robert
AU - Wilson, Jason
PY - 2011/11/2
Y1 - 2011/11/2
N2 - Our goal is to enable military planners to rapidly critique alternative battle plans by simulating multiple outcomes of adversarial plans. We describe a novel simulator, SimPath, that combines qualitative reasoning, a geographic information system (GIS), and targeted probabilistic calculations to envision how adversarial battle plans can play out. We outline the problem and describe the overall operation of the simulator. We then explain how qualitative process theory is extended with actions to model military tasks, how envisioning is factored to reduce combinatorial explosion, and how probabilities are computed for transitions and used to filter possibilities. Empirical results, including an experiment conducted by an independent evaluator, are summarized. The results show that it is possible to identify dozens of possible outcomes on each of 9 combinations of adversarial plans (COAs) in under two minutes. We close with a discussion of future work.
AB - Our goal is to enable military planners to rapidly critique alternative battle plans by simulating multiple outcomes of adversarial plans. We describe a novel simulator, SimPath, that combines qualitative reasoning, a geographic information system (GIS), and targeted probabilistic calculations to envision how adversarial battle plans can play out. We outline the problem and describe the overall operation of the simulator. We then explain how qualitative process theory is extended with actions to model military tasks, how envisioning is factored to reduce combinatorial explosion, and how probabilities are computed for transitions and used to filter possibilities. Empirical results, including an experiment conducted by an independent evaluator, are summarized. The results show that it is possible to identify dozens of possible outcomes on each of 9 combinations of adversarial plans (COAs) in under two minutes. We close with a discussion of future work.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80055036821&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=80055036821&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:80055036821
SN - 9781577355090
T3 - Proceedings of the National Conference on Artificial Intelligence
SP - 1655
EP - 1661
BT - AAAI-11 / IAAI-11 - Proceedings of the 25th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence and the 23rd Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference
T2 - 25th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence and the 23rd Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI-11 / IAAI-11
Y2 - 7 August 2011 through 11 August 2011
ER -