Incorporating maintenance effectiveness in the estimation of dynamic infrastructure performance models

Chih Yuan Chu, Pablo Luis Durango-Cohen*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

29 Scopus citations


We show how intervention analysis can be used in conjunction with dynamic performance modeling to analyze the effect of maintenance activities on the performance of infrastructure facilities. Specifically, we consider state-space specifications of autoregressive moving averages with exogenous inputs models to develop deterioration and inspection models for infrastructure facilities, and intervention analysis to estimate transitory and permanent effects of maintenance, for example, performance jumps or deterioration rate changes. To illustrate the methodology, we analyze the effectiveness of an overlay on a flexible pavement section from the AASHO Road Test. The results show the effect of the overlay on improvements both on surface distress, that is, rutting and slope variance, as well as on the pavement's underlying serviceability. The results also provide evidence that the overlay changes the pavement's response to traffic, that is, the overlay causes a reduction in the rate at which traffic damages the pavement.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)174-188
Number of pages15
JournalComputer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
Issue number3
StatePublished - Apr 1 2008

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design
  • Computational Theory and Mathematics


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