Interpreting and Combining Heterogeneous Survey Forecasts

Charles Manski*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

This article examines forecasts reported in surveys, expositing several logical issues that arise when interpreting and combining heterogeneous forecasts. Understanding these issues is a prerequisite for meaningful use of the data collected in existing surveys, and it may enable design of more informative surveys. The article is organized as follows. Section 2 considers the proper interpretation of point predictions of uncertain events. Section 3 explains the simple, but underappreciated, logical basis for a pervasive empirical finding on the performance of consensus forecasts of real-valued events, while Section 4 calls attention to the problem of assessing the temporal variation of forecasts made by panels of forecasters.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationThe Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting
PublisherOxford University Press
ISBN (Electronic)9780199940325
ISBN (Print)9780195398649
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 18 2012

Keywords

  • Consensus forecasts
  • Economic forecasts
  • Point predictions
  • Real-valued events
  • Surveys
  • Temporal variation
  • Uncertain events

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Arts and Humanities(all)

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