Abstract
This article examines forecasts reported in surveys, expositing several logical issues that arise when interpreting and combining heterogeneous forecasts. Understanding these issues is a prerequisite for meaningful use of the data collected in existing surveys, and it may enable design of more informative surveys. The article is organized as follows. Section 2 considers the proper interpretation of point predictions of uncertain events. Section 3 explains the simple, but underappreciated, logical basis for a pervasive empirical finding on the performance of consensus forecasts of real-valued events, while Section 4 calls attention to the problem of assessing the temporal variation of forecasts made by panels of forecasters.
Original language | English (US) |
---|---|
Title of host publication | The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting |
Publisher | Oxford University Press |
ISBN (Electronic) | 9780199940325 |
ISBN (Print) | 9780195398649 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Sep 18 2012 |
Keywords
- Consensus forecasts
- Economic forecasts
- Point predictions
- Real-valued events
- Surveys
- Temporal variation
- Uncertain events
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- General Arts and Humanities