Background: The 3 treatment options for Graves disease (GD) are antithyroid drugs (ATDs), radioactive iodine (RAI), and thyroid surgery. We hypothesized that thyroid surgery is cost-effective for Graves disease when compared to RAI or ATD. Methods: Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to compare operative strategies to medical treatment strategies for GD. The decision model, based on a reference case, included treatment outcomes, probabilities, and costs derived from literature review. Outcomes were weighted using quality of life utility factors, yielding quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The uncertainty of costs, probabilities, and utility estimates in the model were examined by univariate and multivariate sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Results: The subtotal thyroidectomy strategy produced the greatest QALYs, 25.783, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $26,602 per QALY, reflecting a gain of 0.091 QALYs at an additional cost of $2416 compared to RAI. Surgery was cost-effective when the initial postoperative euthyroid rate was greater than 49.5% and the total cost was less than $7391. Monte Carlo simulation showed the subtotal thyroidectomy strategy to be optimal in 826 of 1000 cases. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that subtotal thyroidectomy can be a cost-effective treatment for GD. However, a 49.5% initial postoperative euthyroid rate was a necessary condition for cost-effective surgical management of GD.
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