TY - GEN
T1 - Learning from randomly arriving agents
AU - Le, Tho Ngoc
AU - Subramanian, Vijay G.
AU - Berry, Randall A.
PY - 2017/7/1
Y1 - 2017/7/1
N2 - We add to a line of work considering the impact of observation imperfections in models of Bayesian observational learning. In particular, we study a discrete-Time model in which in each time-slot, an agent may randomly arrive. Agents who arrive have the opportunity to buy a given item. If an agent chooses to buy, this action is recorded for subsequent agents. However, the decisions of agents who do not choose to buy are not recorded. Hence, if no one buys in a given slot, agents are unaware if this was due to no agent arriving or an agent choosing not to buy. We study the impact of this uncertainty on the emergence of information cascades. Using a Markov chain based analysis, we show that incorrect cascades may occur and that the probability of such cascades is not monotonic in the arrival probability of a user. Moreover, if the agents' private signals are weak, wrong cascades are more likely to happen than correct cascades.
AB - We add to a line of work considering the impact of observation imperfections in models of Bayesian observational learning. In particular, we study a discrete-Time model in which in each time-slot, an agent may randomly arrive. Agents who arrive have the opportunity to buy a given item. If an agent chooses to buy, this action is recorded for subsequent agents. However, the decisions of agents who do not choose to buy are not recorded. Hence, if no one buys in a given slot, agents are unaware if this was due to no agent arriving or an agent choosing not to buy. We study the impact of this uncertainty on the emergence of information cascades. Using a Markov chain based analysis, we show that incorrect cascades may occur and that the probability of such cascades is not monotonic in the arrival probability of a user. Moreover, if the agents' private signals are weak, wrong cascades are more likely to happen than correct cascades.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85048141474&partnerID=8YFLogxK
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U2 - 10.1109/ALLERTON.2017.8262737
DO - 10.1109/ALLERTON.2017.8262737
M3 - Conference contribution
T3 - 55th Annual Allerton Conference on Communication, Control, and Computing, Allerton 2017
SP - 196
EP - 197
BT - 55th Annual Allerton Conference on Communication, Control, and Computing, Allerton 2017
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 55th Annual Allerton Conference on Communication, Control, and Computing, Allerton 2017
Y2 - 3 October 2017 through 6 October 2017
ER -