Learning stochastic model discrepancy

Matthew Plumlee, Henry Lam

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

The vast majority of stochastic simulation models are imperfect in that they fail to fully emulate the entirety of real dynamics. Despite this, these imperfect models are still useful in practice, so long as one knows how the model is inexact. This inexactness is measured by a discrepancy between the proposed stochastic model and a true stochastic distribution across multiple values of some decision variables. In this paper, we propose a method to learn the discrepancy of a stochastic simulation using data collected from the system of interest. Our approach is a novel Bayesian framework that addresses the requirements for estimation of probability measures.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication2016 Winter Simulation Conference
Subtitle of host publicationSimulating Complex Service Systems, WSC 2016
EditorsTheresa M. Roeder, Peter I. Frazier, Robert Szechtman, Enlu Zhou
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages413-424
Number of pages12
ISBN (Electronic)9781509044863
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2 2016
Event2016 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2016 - Arlington, United States
Duration: Dec 11 2016Dec 14 2016

Publication series

NameProceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
Volume0
ISSN (Print)0891-7736

Other

Other2016 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2016
CountryUnited States
CityArlington
Period12/11/1612/14/16

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Computer Science Applications

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