Long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment

Seth Stein*, Mian Liu

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

144 Scopus citations

Abstract

One of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries. Plate tectonics gives no insight, however, into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates, because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform. As a result, within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. Here, however, we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago. We present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries. These predictions are in accord with observations. So the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady-state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)87-89
Number of pages3
JournalNature
Volume462
Issue number7269
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 5 2009

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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