@article{0343f83c11a44f398b1a876ea548efab,
title = "Longitudinal 5-year prediction of cognitive impairment among men with HIV disease",
abstract = "Background:Although combination antiretroviral therapy reduced the prevalence of HIV-associated dementia, milder syndromes persist. Our goals were to predict cognitive impairment of the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) participants 5 years ahead and from a large pool of factors, select the ones that mostly contributed to our predictions.Design:Longitudinal, natural and treated history of HIV infection among MSM.Methods:The MACS is a longitudinal study of the natural and treated history of HIV disease in MSM; the neuropsychological substudy aims to characterize cognitive disorders in men with HIV disease.Results:We modeled on an annual basis the risk of cognitive impairment 5 years in the future. We were able to predict cognitive impairment at individual level with high precision and overperform default methods. We found that while a diagnosis of AIDS is a critical risk factor, HIV infection per se does not necessarily convey additional risk. Other infectious processes, most notably hepatitis B and C, are independently associated with increased risk of impairment. The relative importance of an AIDS diagnosis diminished across calendar time.Conclusion:Our prediction models are a powerful tool to help clinicians address dementia in early stages for MACS paticipants. The strongest predictors of future cognitive impairment included the presence of clinical AIDS and hepatitis B or C infection. The fact that the pattern of predictive power differs by calendar year suggests a clinically critical change to the face of the epidemic.",
keywords = "HIV, LASSO, cognition, risk prediction",
author = "Oliveira, {Natalia L.} and Kennedy, {Edward H.} and Ryan Tibshirani and Andrew Levine and Eileen Martin and Cynthia Munro and Ragin, {Ann B.} and Rubin, {Leah H.} and Ned Sacktor and Seaberg, {Eric C.} and Andrea Weinstein and Becker, {James T.}",
note = "Funding Information: Funding: Preparation of this manuscript was supported in part by funds from the National Institute on Aging to J.T.B. [AG034852]. E.K. was supported, in part, by funds from the National Science Foundation Division of Mathematical Sciences [Grant 1810979]. Funding Information: The data in this manuscript were collected with the support of the National Institutes of Health by the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study [MACS) with centers at Baltimore [U01-AI35042]: The Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health: Joseph B. Margolick (PI), Todd Brown (PI), Jay Bream, Adrian Dobs, Michelle Estrella, W. David Hardy, Lisette Johnson-Hill, Sean Leng, Anne Monroe, Cynthia Munro, Michael W. Plankey, Wendy Post, Ned Sacktor, Jennifer Schrack, Chloe Thio; Chicago [U01-AI35039]: Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, and Cook County Bureau of Health Services: Steven M. Wolinsky (PI), Sheila Badri, Dana Gabuzda, Frank J. Palella, Jr., Sudhir Penugonda, John P. Phair, Susheel Reddy, Matthew Stephens, Linda Teplin; Los Angeles [U01-AI35040]: University of California, UCLA Schools of Public Health and Medicine: Roger Detels (PI), Otoniel Mart{\'i}nez-Maza (PI), Otto Yang (Co-PI), Peter Anton, Robert Bolan, Elizabeth Breen, Anthony Butch, Shehnaz Hussain, Beth Jamieson, John Oishi, Harry Vinters, Dorothy Wiley, Mallory Witt, Stephen Young, Zuo Feng Zhang; Pittsburgh [U01-AI35041]: University of Pittsburgh, Graduate School of Public Health: Charles R. Rinaldo (PI), Lawrence A. Kingsley (PI), Jeremy J. Martinson (PI), James T. Becker, Phalguni Gupta, Kenneth Ho, Susan Koletar, John W. Mellors, Anthony J. Silvestre, Ronald D. Stall; Data Coordinating Center [UM1-AI35043]: The Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health: Lisa P. Jacobson (PI), Gypsyamber D'Souza (PI), Alison Abraham, Keri Althoff, Michael Collaco, Priya Duggal, Sabina Haberlen, Eithne Keelaghan, Heather McKay, Alvaro Mu{\~n}oz, Derek Ng, Anne Rostich, Eric C. Seaberg, Sol Su, Pamela Surkan, Nicholas Wada. Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases: Robin E. Huebner; National Cancer Institute: Geraldina Dominguez. The MACS is funded primarily by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), with additional co-funding from the National Cancer Institute (NCI), the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), and the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH). Targeted supplemental funding for specific projects was also provided by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), and the National Institute on Deafness and Communication Disorders (NIDCD). MACS data collection is also supported by UL1-TR001079 (JHU ICTR) from the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS) a component of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and NIH Roadmap for Medical Research. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 Lippincott Williams and Wilkins. All rights reserved.",
year = "2021",
month = may,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1097/QAD.0000000000002827",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "35",
pages = "889--898",
journal = "AIDS",
issn = "0269-9370",
publisher = "Lippincott Williams and Wilkins",
number = "6",
}