Longitudinal Trends in Pediatric Return Visits to US Emergency Departments

Objectives This study aimed to evaluate trends in pediatric emergency department (ED) 72-hour return visits and factors associated with return visits. Methods We performed a cross-sectional study from 2002 to 2018 using the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, a complex survey of nonfederal US ED encounters. Patients 18 years or older were excluded. Our outcome of interest was 72-hour return ED encounter. We assessed changes in proportions of return visits over time using the Spearman rank-correlation test. We performed survey-weighted univariable and multivariable logistic regressions to identify factors associated with 72-hour return visit status. Results A total of 501 million (95% confidence interval [CI], 452-551 million) pediatric survey-weighted ED encounters occurred during the 17-year study period, of which 14,353,697 (3.2%; 95% CI, 2.7%-3.7%) represented 72-hour return visits. The proportion of pediatric ED return visits increased from 22.9 to 36.5 per 1000 pediatric encounters over the study period (ρ = 0.68, P < 0.01). Most return visits were of lower acuity (73.0%; 95% CI, 68.6%-11.5%), and 8.1% (95% CI, 6.3%-9.9%) of return visits were admitted to the hospital or transferred to a different facility. In multivariable analyses, older age, abnormal heart rate, and abnormal temperature had lower adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 72-hour return visits compared with encounters not classified as return visit. Complaints of returning for test results, treatment, and diagnostic screening/administrative purposes were associated with a higher aOR of return visit. Admission/transfer (in comparison with discharge) had a higher odds of return visit status in univariable (odds ratio, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.24-2.04) and multivariable (aOR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.03-1.68) analyses. Conclusions The proportion of 72-hour US pediatric ED return visits is increasing over time. Return visit status was associated with admission/transfer, but otherwise with markers of lower patient acuity. These findings inform quality improvement efforts aimed at improving pediatric transition to outpatient care after an ED encounter.