Material Requirement and Resource Availability for Silicon Photovoltaic Laminate Manufacturing in the Next 10 Years

Material scarcity is a considerable threat to energy transition towards renewables. Photovoltaics (PV) installations are expected to increase rapidly in the next decade, which may increase the amount of material needed. This study created three scenarios (S1, S2, S3) to evaluate the impacts of potential technology improvements on the quantity of materials necessary for manufacturing silicon PV (Si PV) laminate in the next ten years. Our baseline was similar to previous studies, which applied theoretical models on PV historical data and ignored PV technology improvements that can influence future material projections. S1 considered only market share and module efficiency, while S2 covered wafer thickness improvements as well. S3 was the scenario that more likely will occur in the next decade, which included module efficiency, market share, wafer thickness, glass thickness, and potential replacements such as using perovskite/silicon tandem. The material requirement for Si PV laminate manufacturing in S3 was 22% to 78% lower than the baseline, S1, and S2. The highest material demand is expected to be for solar glass (74 million metric tons) and Metallurgical grade silicon (3 million metric tons) in the next decade. This study showed the importance of considering technology improvements to project the PV material requirement.