Abstract
We analyze probabilistic expectations of equity returns elicited in the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999-2001 and in the Michigan Survey of Consumers in 2002-2004. Our empirical findings suggest that individuals use interpersonally variable but intrapersonally stable processes to form their expectations. We therefore propose to think of the population as a mixture of expectations types, each forming expectations in a stable but different way. We use our expectations data to learn about the prevalence of several specific types suggested by research in finance.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 352-370 |
Number of pages | 19 |
Journal | Journal of Applied Econometrics |
Volume | 26 |
Issue number | 3 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Apr 2011 |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
- Economics and Econometrics