Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

Scott Ross Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis

Research output: Working paper

591 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence – including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles – indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our US index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt-ceiling dispute and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty is associated with greater stock price volatility and reduced investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, healthcare, finance and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, innovations in policy uncertainty foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States and, in a panel VAR setting, for 12 major economies. Extending our US index back to 1900, EPU rose dramatically in the 1930s (from late 1931) and has drifted upwards since the 1960s.
Original languageEnglish (US)
Number of pages79
StatePublished - Mar 10 2016

Fingerprint

Economic policy
Policy uncertainty
Firm-level data
Stock price volatility
Economic uncertainty
Finance
Panel VAR
Fiscal policy
September 11 attacks
Debt
Innovation
Dispute
Attack
Presidential elections
Healthcare

Cite this

Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty.
Baker, Scott Ross ; Bloom, Nicholas ; Davis, Steven J. / Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. 2016.
@techreport{8e95a36b1f034fa0a1bfa2eb3ff8de7f,
title = "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty",
abstract = "We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence – including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles – indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our US index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt-ceiling dispute and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty is associated with greater stock price volatility and reduced investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, healthcare, finance and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, innovations in policy uncertainty foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States and, in a panel VAR setting, for 12 major economies. Extending our US index back to 1900, EPU rose dramatically in the 1930s (from late 1931) and has drifted upwards since the 1960s.",
author = "Baker, {Scott Ross} and Nicholas Bloom and Davis, {Steven J.}",
year = "2016",
month = "3",
day = "10",
language = "English (US)",
type = "WorkingPaper",

}

Baker, SR, Bloom, N & Davis, SJ 2016 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty'.

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. / Baker, Scott Ross; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.

2016.

Research output: Working paper

TY - UNPB

T1 - Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

AU - Baker, Scott Ross

AU - Bloom, Nicholas

AU - Davis, Steven J.

PY - 2016/3/10

Y1 - 2016/3/10

N2 - We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence – including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles – indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our US index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt-ceiling dispute and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty is associated with greater stock price volatility and reduced investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, healthcare, finance and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, innovations in policy uncertainty foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States and, in a panel VAR setting, for 12 major economies. Extending our US index back to 1900, EPU rose dramatically in the 1930s (from late 1931) and has drifted upwards since the 1960s.

AB - We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence – including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles – indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our US index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt-ceiling dispute and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty is associated with greater stock price volatility and reduced investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, healthcare, finance and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, innovations in policy uncertainty foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States and, in a panel VAR setting, for 12 major economies. Extending our US index back to 1900, EPU rose dramatically in the 1930s (from late 1931) and has drifted upwards since the 1960s.

M3 - Working paper

BT - Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

ER -

Baker SR, Bloom N, Davis SJ. Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. 2016 Mar 10.