Model B4: Multi-decade creep and shrinkage prediction of traditional and modern concretes

To improve the sustainability of concrete infrastructure, engineers face the challenge of incorporating new concrete materials while pushing the expected design life beyond 100 years. The time-dependent creep and shrinkage response of concrete governs the serviceability and durability in this multi-decade time frame. It has been shown that current prediction equations for creep and shrinkage underestimate material deformations observed in structures outside of a laboratory environment. A new prediction model for creep and shrinkage is presented that can overcome some of the shortcomings of the current equations. The model represents an extension and systematic recalibration of model B3, a 1995 RILEM Recommendation, which derives its functional form from the phenomena of diffusion, chemical hydration, moisture sorption, and the evolution of micro-stresses in the cement structure. The model is calibrated through a joint optimization of a new enlarged laboratory test database and a new database of bridge deflection records to overcome the bias towards short-term behavior. A framework for considering effects of aggregates, admixtures, additives, and higher temperatures is also incorporated.